Tensions Escalate After India’s ‘Operation Sindoor’; Cross-Border Shelling Intensifies
In the wake of India’s recent military operation, ‘Operation Sindoor,’ which targeted nine locations in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and the Punjab province of Pakistan. Cross-border tensions have escalated significantly. Pakistan has responded with continuous shelling along the Line of Control (LoC), raising fears of a broader conflict.
Scenario 3 – Economic & Infrastructure Disruptions
A. Fuel & Power Shortages
- Oil Price Shock: In the event of Iran and China aligning with Pakistan, crude oil prices could surge to $125–150 per barrel, severely impacting India’s import bill and fuel subsidies. This could trigger a cascading effect on transportation and manufacturing costs.
- Coal Supply Hit: Thermal power plants in states like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra may experience fuel shortages if railway freight corridors are diverted to support military logistics, straining electricity supply during peak summer demand.
B. Transportation Chaos
- Airspace Shutdown: Following precedents from 2019, North Indian airspace is already partially closed, with potential for a wider flight halt over conflict zones, especially in Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, and Rajasthan. Passenger movements are being rerouted or suspended, requiring real-time coordination with airlines.
- Rail Cancellations: Train services to and from Punjab and J&K are likely to be suspended. Movement of goods via rail freight will also slow down significantly, affecting delivery timelines and supply chain continuity for both civil and military needs.
C. Inflation & Essential Goods Crisis
- Food Prices Jump Possible: Agricultural supply chains are at risk, particularly for wheat and vegetables from Punjab and Haryana. Any long-term disruption can push retail prices upward, adding to inflationary pressures.
- Medicines Shortage: India’s pharma manufacturing hubs in Himachal Pradesh and Telangana may face delays in raw material imports, especially from China, impacting the production and availability of essential medicines nationwide.
Scenario 4 – Pakistan’s Expected Retaliation – In case of further escalation
A. Military Responses
- Missile Strikes: India’s military bases, especially in Pathankot, Ambala, and Jodhpur, are at high risk of missile strikes. Pakistan may target these strategic locations to disrupt air force operations and logistics along the western border.
- Proxy War Escalation: Kashmir militants are expected to intensify operations, potentially coordinated by Pakistan-backed groups. A cross-border incursion from Bangladesh cannot be ruled out, creating the possibility of a two-front engagement, which would stretch India’s military resources and strategic capabilities.
B. Asymmetric Warfare
- Cyber Strikes: There is a credible threat from Pakistani cyber operatives targeting critical banking infrastructure, Aadhaar, and UPI systems. A successful breach could trigger widespread panic, undermine trust in digital systems, and destabilize financial operations in India. Pakistani hackers have already made attempts to infiltrate defense-related entities.
- Drones & IEDs: The threat of smuggled weapons, including drones and IEDs, being used to target urban centres such as Delhi, Ahmedabad, and Lucknow is increasing. These devices can be deployed covertly to spread panic and disrupt public order in key metropolitan areas.
C. Diplomatic & Economic War
- China’s Blockade: China is likely to leverage its veto power in the UN Security Council (UNSC) to block any resolutions in favor of India, particularly those seeking to condemn Pakistan’s actions. Furthermore, China may use its influence to stall India’s UNSC membership bid to prevent the escalation of the conflict in Pakistan’s favor.
- Gulf Pressure: Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), particularly Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, may exert pressure on India by threatening to expel Indian expatriates or cut remittances in a show of solidarity with Pakistan. This could have significant economic consequences for India, which relies heavily on remittances from Gulf-based workers.
The escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, following India’s military operation in PoK, have triggered multifaceted threats ranging from military strikes, proxy warfare, and cyberattacks to economic disruptions and diplomatic challenges.
With Pakistan’s retaliatory actions, including artillery shelling, potential terrorist activities, and the activation of sleeper cells, the security situation is precarious. Additionally, critical infrastructure, such as power grids, ports, and urban centers, faces increased risks from targeted attacks and cyber threats.
On the economic front, disruptions in energy supplies, transportation, and inflation in essential goods are imminent, while diplomatic pressures from China and Gulf nations further complicate India’s position.
The situation demands a robust, multi-pronged response to safeguard national security, economic stability, and international standing.
Organizations, policymakers, and security experts must collaborate and develop comprehensive strategies to mitigate these risks and ensure national preparedness.
Amid the mounting crisis, India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval have initiated diplomatic outreach, engaging with global counterparts, including China’s Foreign Minister and Pakistan’s NSA, in efforts to contain the situation.
With a potential wartime scenario emerging, the region faces both immediate and long-term risks. The following report outlines possible impacts, Pakistan’s likely responses, and strategic implications for India.
Scenario 1 – Immediate Military Attacks & Security Fallout
A. Frontline War Zone – Jammu & Kashmir (J&K)
- Heavy Shelling & Infiltration (Ongoing since 7 May): Pakistan continues to retaliate with intensified artillery strikes along the Line of Control, particularly targeting sectors in Poonch, Rajouri, Uri, and Keran. These attacks are accompanied by increased attempts at cross-border infiltration, signaling a prolonged period of heightened military activity.
- Terror Attacks Surge: Intelligence inputs suggest that terror outfits such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba may exploit the chaos to launch high-casualty suicide attacks. Likely targets include Srinagar, Jammu, border towns, and Indian military installations, prompting elevated security alerts and preemptive counter-terror measures.
- Mass Evacuations: The intensifying conflict is triggering displacement across civilian populations living near the LoC. Residents in affected areas are moving outward toward safer zones, creating an urgent need for logistical coordination, shelter, medical aid, and resource deployment to manage the relief effort.
B. Border Escalation – Punjab & Rajasthan
- Drone Strikes & Sabotage: There is a heightened risk of drone-based incursions across border districts in Punjab and Rajasthan, with the potential for weapon drops and explosive payloads. Intelligence agencies have flagged areas including Amritsar, Gurdaspur, and Ferozepur as high-risk zones. Counter-drone surveillance and interdiction efforts are being intensified.
- Border Skirmishes: Pakistan may expand its shelling campaign to Punjab’s agrarian regions, particularly Fazilka and Pathankot, threatening not only civilian safety but also disrupting the harvest and supply chain during a critical agricultural season.
- Military Mobilization and Logistical Strain: The Indian Armed Forces have begun large-scale mobilization along key corridors. If such a scenario continues, army convoys will occupy major highways, including the Delhi–Amritsar and Jaipur–Bikaner routes, which are expected to cause delays in civilian transport and supply logistics, especially in northern and western India.
C. Coastal & Economic Vulnerability – Gujarat
- Port Sabotage: Intelligence agencies have warned of possible sea-borne terror attacks targeting key Indian ports such as Kandla and Mundra, drawing parallels to the 2008 Mumbai attacks. The threat is believed to originate from Karachi-based terror operatives, with a focus on crippling maritime trade and national logistics hubs.
- Refinery Attacks: The Reliance Jamnagar refinery, the largest oil refining complex in the world, is under increased surveillance amid concerns of missile or drone attacks. Its strategic and economic significance makes it a high-value target in the event of full-scale escalation.
D. Over Overground Workers—Sleeper Cells in India
- Suspected Terrorist Sleeper Cells: Recent counter-terror investigations (2024–2025) have uncovered deep-rooted sleeper cells within India. Individuals with forged Indian documents, such as Aadhaar and voter IDs, some residing undetected for over two decades, are suspected to be part of ISI-linked overground worker networks, posing a grave threat to internal security and urban safety.
Scenario 2 – Urban Centres Likely to be Targeted via Terrorism & Cyber Warfare
A. Delhi-NCR—High-Value Targets
- Terror Strikes: The ISI may activate sleeper cells to conduct coordinated bombings in high-footfall public areas, including Connaught Place, Chandni Chowk, major airports, and metro networks. Security has been heightened across major urban centers to deter potential attacks.
- Cyberattacks: Pakistani state-sponsored hackers are likely to target critical infrastructure, including power grids (BSES, NTPC). A successful breach could impact UPI transactions, ATM networks, and government digital services, potentially triggering panic and operational paralysis across sectors.
B. Mumbai—Financial & Symbolic Target
- Maritime Threat: With continuous bomb threats, the following are some of the high-risk locations, including the Taj Hotel, the Mumbai Stock Exchange, Indian Coast Guard facilities, and airports in border-adjacent states like Punjab, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. Mumbai remains a prime symbolic target, reminiscent of the 26/11 attacks.
- Market Crash: Increased geopolitical instability could result in a 10–15% drop in the Sensex, with the RBI possibly intervening to stabilize forex markets, including a temporary freeze on currency trading. Investor confidence is fragile.
C. Bengaluru/Hyderabad—Tech & Defense Hubs
- IT Sector Slowdown: Major IT firms like Wipro and Infosys face operational risks from cyber intrusions linked to Pakistan-based groups. Data centers and tech campuses are under enhanced surveillance, with contingency protocols activated for possible shutdowns.
- Aerospace Threats: Security has been ramped up at DRDO labs in Hyderabad and ISRO facilities in Bengaluru, given their strategic value and vulnerability to sabotage or targeted attacks during heightened hostilities.
